The video of the Tu-22M3 falling clearly shows one of its engines burning, suggesting that the Russian MoD's claims hold without any chance of seeming illogical. On the other hand, the S-200 is (in)famous for its enormous missiles. These are equipped with a massive warhead weighing well over 200 kg and containing 21,000 3.5 g fragmentation pellets triggered by a radar proximity fuse or command signal. If such a monstrosity hit any aircraft or just close enough to it, there would be very little left (if anything at all). In the best-case scenario, there would be massive, clearly visible damage to the Tu-22M3.